Monday, December 6, 2010

China is Strong Until it Breaks

Regular readers of this space will know that I don't trust China.  From it's militarism (they now have a thoroughly modern navy exceeding the size of the U.S.N.) to it's backing of terrorism (as North Korea and Iran's best friend) and its total disregard for human rights, the rule of law, the sanctity of patents, and the world economic order, there's plenty to be worried about when contemplating this emerging dragon.  A new spectre (to me at least) was raised recently by the very sagacious Donald Coxe, one of the economic strategists I read whenever I can, that being looming widespread hunger in China and the consequences thereof.  His belief is that "the main driving force" (as he put it) behind many of China's initiatives both foreign and domestic is the very real possibility of famine in the next few years which would - of course - severely destabilize the ruling dictatorship.  It's already a hard country to run, what with a rising middle class who have not only had a taste of "the good life" we take for granted in the West but also a taste of democracy in their special economic zones and Hong Kong, to which you can now add failed social engineering (China's one child policy has left the country with a dearth of females and thus way too many restless young males), overpopulation and sagging food production.  Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.  I don't trust China, and neither should western governments or investors.  If China breaks, the shards will scatter around the globe.